Weekly Market Recap, 26 October–1 November 2026: Rates, Binance and Metals

Market recap compiled on 2 November 2026. Traditional-market observations end on 30 October; cryptocurrency prices and events run through 1 November. No 2 November market movements are included.

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan left their policy settings unchanged, but October ended with little evidence of an easy policy backdrop. US growth remained firm, consumer-price pressure persisted, and a major Binance security incident introduced an additional concern for cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin and Ether recovered over the weekend, yet both finished below their Monday observations, while Solana continued to weaken.

Gold and silver also fell, with silver suffering the larger decline. Estimated fund flows told a less uniform story: the selected gold funds showed combined outflows, GLD was approximately flat, and SLV showed estimated net creations despite the silver-price retreat. Shorter Treasury yields declined, and major currencies moved in different directions, making a single explanation for every market move unconvincing.

Week at a glance

Price changes compare Monday’s observation with Friday’s for traditional markets and Sunday’s for crypto; they are not previous-Friday-to-Friday or Sunday-to-Sunday returns. ETF flows cover the five US sessions from 26 to 30 October. For the previous week’s context, see HFR’s 19–25 October market recap.

Market context

Policy holds did not settle the tension between growth and inflation. The Fed’s Wednesday statement described strong activity and elevated inflation; Thursday’s GDP and personal-spending releases subsequently provided more detail on that combination. The timing matters: the releases followed the decision and should not be presented as its announced justification.

The market evidence was similarly uneven. Falling two- and ten-year Treasury yields accompanied lower crypto and metals prices, while the dollar index barely changed between the selected endpoints. Those observations do not establish that bond yields caused the crypto decline or that dollar strength explained the metals sell-off. The Binance incident also required an exchange-security assessment separate from macroeconomic analysis.

Central banks hold rates while inflation risks remain

The Fed retains its range with two votes for an increase

On 28 October, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-percentage-point increase. The statement’s combination of firm activity and elevated inflation left the next policy step dependent on further information.

The dissent is evidence of disagreement within the committee, rather than a numerical measure of market expectations. No exact historical FedWatch probability is used here because a sufficiently complete dated snapshot was unavailable. Futures-implied probabilities, where available, describe market pricing and are distinct from official guidance.

The ECB and BoJ also leave their settings unchanged

The ECB kept its deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% on 29 October. It described the energy shock as a risk to both inflation and growth and maintained a meeting-by-meeting approach. Its statement did not commit to a subsequent rate move.

The BoJ retained its overnight call-rate guideline around 1.25% on 30 October by an 8–1 vote; Hajime Takata preferred around 1.50%. Separately, it announced a faster annual disposal pace for Japanese equity ETFs, from roughly ¥330bn to ¥860bn on a book-value basis, starting in January 2027. That future balance-sheet plan is distinct from this week’s crypto and precious-metals fund flows.

The BoE had no scheduled rate decision during the reporting week. Its existing 3.75% Bank Rate remained the reference ahead of the 5 November meeting. A 28 October remit letter reconfirmed the symmetric 2% CPI target; it was not an interest-rate announcement.

US growth remains firm as households face higher prices

The BEA’s advance estimate, published on 29 October, put Q3 real GDP growth at 3.4% annualised, following 2.2% in Q2. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, versus 4.6%, indicating firm underlying domestic demand. The GDP estimate remains subject to revision.

September personal spending gave a more restrained picture after adjusting for prices. Nominal consumption increased 0.5% month on month, but real consumption changed by less than 0.1%, rounding to zero. Personal income increased 0.2%, following an August increase revised to 0.3% from 0.2%.

The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% year on year. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Firm GDP alongside little real spending growth in September shows why one quarterly headline cannot describe every part of the economy. These monthly inflation readings also differ from the annualised quarterly price measures in the GDP report.

Labour releases offered no simple recession signal. Initial claims were 194,000 for the week ended 24 October, down 1,000 from the revised prior figure of 195,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.701 million for the earlier week ended 17 October. The two series have different reference weeks.

The Q3 Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% quarter on quarter, following 0.9%, while its annual increase remained 3.4%. That suggests slightly slower quarterly compensation growth, although it does not by itself establish a lasting easing in wage pressure.

Activity outside consumption was mixed. September durable-goods orders rose 1.8%, with orders excluding transport up 0.5%. New-home sales were 676,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, against 680,000 in August; the estimated 0.6% monthly decline was not statistically significant.

In Europe, the euro area’s preliminary Q3 GDP estimate showed 0.4% quarterly growth, following 0.6%; these are non-annualised rates and cannot be compared directly with the US headline. UK September mortgage approvals eased to 53,400 from 54,800, while net consumer credit fell to £1.9bn from £2.7bn. These releases provided regional context without establishing the cause of the week’s currency changes.

Treasury yields fall most at shorter maturities

Official Treasury par yields declined unevenly between Monday and Friday. The five-year yield fell the most among the maturities shown, while the thirty-year endpoint was unchanged.

The ten-year minus two-year spread widened from 32 to 38 basis points. This was bull steepening in that segment: yields fell, with the shorter maturity falling further. It does not imply that every maturity rallied equally or identify a single reason for the move.

Forex directions diverge as DXY barely changes

Investing.com’s dated daily observations show DXY slipping from 101.96 to 101.88, a 0.08% decline. EUR/USD fell from 1.1174 to 1.1160, or 0.13%, whereas GBP/USD rose from 1.3343 to 1.3392, or 0.37%. USD/JPY edged from 157.51 to 157.55, a 0.03% increase.

Sterling therefore strengthened against the dollar even as the euro weakened slightly and the yen was marginally softer. The dollar index and USD/JPY need not move together, because each measures a different currency relationship. These observations do not establish official intervention.

Daily reference prices also differ from executable quotations. HFR’s explanation of why forex spreads widen outlines how news, liquidity and broker conditions can affect the gap between buying and selling prices.

Crypto gives back its midweek gains

CoinGecko’s historical closing observations show all three covered assets finishing below Monday, despite an advance into Wednesday. Bitcoin moved from $80,029 on 26 October to $81,274 on 28 October, then fell to $77,223 by Friday. Ether and Solana followed a similar midweek reversal.

Solana was the weakest of the three over this comparison and continued to fall during the weekend. Bitcoin and Ether regained some ground after Friday, but the recovery did not erase their losses against Monday. The price sequence establishes the move; it cannot isolate the contribution of policy, fund flows or security news.

Crypto ETF outflows concentrate late in the week

Farside’s Bitcoin series recorded inflows during the first four US sessions, followed by a $643.2m outflow on Friday that more than reversed those gains. Ether ETFs and the tracked Solana-linked products had negative totals in every session.

The Solana universe comprises BSOL, VSOL, FSOL, TSOL, SOEZ, MSOL and GSOL. “Solana-linked products” is the appropriate collective description because legal structures, staking and distribution arrangements differ. These are tracked US product flows, rather than a measure of worldwide demand or immediate underlying-token transactions.

Exchange security overshadows institutional announcements

Binance’s 30 October announcement estimated the security incident’s impact at approximately $6.3bn and said roughly $3bn had been frozen on-chain. It suspended withdrawals while security checks continued. The FBI subsequently placed the theft on or about 29 October.

The exchange’s account was preliminary. Frozen assets are distinct from recovered assets, and a promise to replace losses does not establish completed reimbursement or independent solvency assurance. The incident coincided with late-week weakness, but the evidence does not support attributing the entire crypto decline to it. HFR’s Proof of Reserves guide explains what a dated reserve snapshot does and does not establish.

Other market-infrastructure announcements included an ICE agreement with TradeXYZ concerning proposed onshore perpetual markets, Polygon’s announced Solana support and a Bank of England consultation on tokenised clearing collateral. They are separate developments, not evidence of immediate transaction volumes or regulatory approval. 

Weekend crypto update: 31 October–1 November

On Saturday 31 October, CoinGecko’s closes were $77,474 for Bitcoin, $2,254.13 for Ether and $95.42 for Solana. Binance said approximately 90% of affected assets had been replenished using corporate and reserve resources. The FBI separately attributed the theft, on or about 29 October, to North Korea’s TraderTraitor activity. Replenishment meant replacement funding, not recovery of 90% of the stolen tokens. 

On Sunday 1 November, Bitcoin and Ether closed at $78,311 and $2,273.92, respectively, up 1.41% and 1.40% from Friday. Solana ended at $94.48, down 1.84% over the same interval. These are Friday-to-Sunday comparisons, not Saturday-opening returns. 

Binance said on 1 November that it had procured replacement assets worth approximately 95% of the incident’s estimated impact. The company announced plans for phased withdrawal resumption beginning between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC, subject to checks and network availability. Replenishment is not recovery of stolen tokens, and an announced rollout does not establish that withdrawals were fully restored for every asset. 

Gold and silver fall despite lower Treasury yields

Gold’s XAU/USD spot/proxy observation declined from $4,017.07 per troy ounce on Monday to $3,875.44 on Friday, a 3.53% fall. Silver’s XAG/USD observation fell from $53.9720 to $49.1277, or 8.98%. Both had higher observations earlier in the week before falling sharply at its end. 

These were OTC spot/proxy prices, not COMEX futures settlements or ETF share prices. Their decline alongside lower two- and ten-year Treasury yields and a marginally softer DXY endpoint demonstrates the limits of a simple one-factor explanation. It does not establish that yields and the dollar had no influence at other points during the week.

GLD and IAU give different gold-fund signals

ETFIQ’s displayed daily estimates sum to approximately +$1.8m for GLD and −$132.3m for IAU, leaving combined selected gold-fund outflows of approximately $130.5m. GLD’s provider-displayed five-day aggregate was only +$835,000: rounding individual daily values creates a meaningful difference when the net result is close to zero. GLD is therefore best described as approximately flat.

Figures are approximate flow estimates in US$m, labelled by ETFIQ record date. Each flow equals the change in shares outstanding multiplied by the preceding count’s NAV; under ETFIQ’s convention, it reflects the previous trading day’s orders. These are estimates of creations and redemptions, not secondary-market turnover, certified settled cash or direct bullion transactions. Original iShares share-count and NAV records support the direction and scale of the IAU and SLV estimates.

Estimated IAU outflows aligned directionally with falling gold, while GLD showed little net change. The combined result describes those two funds only. It cannot stand for worldwide gold ETF flows or establish that redemptions caused the gold-price decline.

SLV creations contrast with weaker silver

SLV’s displayed estimates sum to approximately $247.1m of inflows, concentrated on Wednesday and Friday. That broadly matches ETFIQ’s rounded five-day aggregate of $247m. Estimated creations therefore diverged from silver’s 8.98% price fall.

This divergence does not prove that investors deliberately bought the dip, nor does it identify all sources of silver demand. The selected-fund figures cannot be converted into global silver ETF flows or changes in physical ounces held. Compatible historical holdings endpoints and matched global weekly aggregates were unavailable and are not inferred.

What to watch next

The 2–6 November calendar shifts attention to US activity and employment data, the Bank of England decision and the US general election. The schedule contains planned releases, not outcomes. US Eastern Standard Time is UTC−5 after the 1 November clock change; UK times are GMT.

Eurostat’s current calendar schedules the euro-area October flash inflation estimate for Tuesday 3 November, not 4 November. The Bank of Japan published its full October outlook on 2 November, outside this completed-week recap; September meeting minutes are scheduled for 5 November. Any later Binance recovery reports also belong to the following reporting period.

Final takeaway

The week combined unchanged policy settings with firm US growth, persistent inflation and a substantial exchange-security shock. Bitcoin and Ether’s weekend recoveries were incomplete, Solana remained weaker, and falling metals prices were accompanied by divergent selected-fund flows.

The clearest conclusion is that the markets did not deliver one consistent sentiment signal. The next employment, activity and policy releases provide new tests, while the Binance incident leaves a separate question of operational recovery. None of those uncertainties is resolved by a single weekly return or ETF total.

Risk note

Market news and analysis are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be treated as financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

Prices, exchange access and market conditions can change quickly. Fund flows do not guarantee future performance, and security announcements may remain preliminary. Derivatives and leveraged products add funding, leverage and liquidation risks; losses are possible.

Sources and methodology

The reporting windows are 26–30 October for traditional markets and US-listed product flows, and 26 October–1 November for crypto prices and news. Sources were inspected on 2 November 2026; later market observations were excluded. Earlier policy settings are identified as background. Return calculations use (final observation / first observation − 1) × 100, with Monday endpoints as described above.

CoinGecko supplies provider-defined USD closing observations with UTC dates. Investing.com supplies daily FX, DXY and OTC metals observations; its exact closing timezone was not established. Treasury figures use only official par yields. Farside daily totals are summed at their displayed precision. ETFIQ estimates are approximate; sums of rounded daily figures can differ from its displayed aggregates. Flow and price windows are not identical: Farside includes Monday’s full session, while ETFIQ uses the record-date convention explained above. No causal relationship is inferred.

• Federal Reserve, 28 October FOMC statement.
• ECB, 29 October monetary policy decisions.
• BoJ, 30 October statement and equity ETF disposal plan.
• BoE, September decision and 28 October MPC remit.
• BEA, Q3 GDP advance estimate.
• BEA, September personal income and outlays.
• Department of Labor, 29 October weekly claims release. This is a rolling URL; the dated release governs the observations used here.
• BLS, Q3 Employment Cost Index.
• Census Bureau, September durable goods and new residential sales. Rolling pages were read as the October releases.
• Eurostat, Q3 GDP flash; BoE, September money and credit.
• US Treasury, October daily par yield curve rates.
• Investing.com historical data: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, gold and silver.
• CoinGecko historical data: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.
• Farside: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana-linked products.
• Binance: initial incident update, 31 October replenishment update and 1 November phased-withdrawal plan; FBI, 31 October attribution.
• ICE, TradeXYZ agreement; Polygon, Solana payment-stack support; BoE, tokenised-collateral consultation.
• ETFIQ: GLD, IAU, SLV and flow methodology.
• Original iShares historical downloads, available through the IAU issuer page and SLV issuer page: NAV and shares-outstanding cross-checks, not verified physical-holdings changes.
• Forward schedules: BLS, BEA, Census manufacturing, construction, ISM, Fed, BoE, BoJ, weekly claims, FEC and Eurostat current release calendar. The BoE’s events calendar gives the decision and report time.