Weekly Market Recap: Jobs, Dollar, Bitcoin — Sep 28-Oct 4

Market recap

Markets did not move in one direction during the week. U.S. payroll growth slowed to 29,000 in September while unemployment held at 4.2%, but August inflation remained firm, and the final estimate of second-quarter U.S. growth was revised higher. Treasury yields split by maturity, the dollar finished higher, and rate expectations shifted after the labour data.

Traditional markets completed their measurement window on Friday, October 2. Crypto continued through Sunday, October 4, with Bitcoin, Ether and Solana all ending the seven-day period higher. Fund flows were less uniform: Bitcoin products finished the five U.S. sessions with a net inflow, Ether products with a net outflow, and Farside-tracked Solana-linked products were close to flat.

Gold and silver also diverged. Gold finished modestly higher on the selected spot-series convention, while silver ended lower. Taken together, the week was defined by conflicting signals across labour, inflation, growth, rates, currencies and fund flows rather than by one dominant macro factor. For continuity, see HFR's September 21-27 weekly market recap.

Week at a glance

Market or indicator	Completed-window result	Key context
U.S. nonfarm payrolls	+29,000	Unemployment held at 4.2%
DXY	+0.72%	Dollar finished the Sep 28-Oct 2 endpoint window higher
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield	-9 bp	Fell from 4.92% to 4.83%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield	+4 bp	Rose from 5.24% to 5.28%
EUR/USD	-1.03%	Euro weakened on the selected endpoint convention
GBP/USD	-0.09%	Sterling was nearly flat but slightly lower
USD/JPY	+0.30%	Pair rose modestly
Bitcoin	+3.61%	Sep 28-Oct 4 CoinGecko historical observations
Ethereum	+1.41%	Sep 28-Oct 4 CoinGecko historical observations
Solana	+2.27%	Sep 28-Oct 4 CoinGecko historical observations
Gold spot	+0.67%	Investing.com spot-series endpoint return
Silver spot	-0.94%	Investing.com spot-series endpoint return

Market context

The Federal Reserve did not change rates during the completed week. The policy backdrop remained the September 16 FOMC decision, which raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. During the week, attention shifted to how officials described the balance between still-high inflation and softer labour conditions.

Governor Michael Barr said on September 29 that inflation remained too high and that, in his baseline, further policy adjustments would likely be needed. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on October 1 similarly emphasised that inflation remained too high, while saying future adjustments would depend on incoming data, the outlook and the balance of risks. These were policy communications, not fresh rate decisions.

Outside the U.S., central-bank and inflation developments added their own currency-specific context. Euro-area flash inflation accelerated to 3.8% year on year in September, while the Bank of Japan's Tankan and Summary of Opinions added new information without constituting a new policy decision. The Bank of England's September rate decision also remained background rather than a current-week action.

U.S. data, Treasury yields and DXY

The labour picture softened across several releases. August JOLTS showed 7.1 million job openings, 5.2 million hires and 5.1 million total separations. Quits stood at 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges at 1.6 million, while July openings were revised to 7.3 million.

The September Employment Situation showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 29,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month on month to $37.81 and were 3.0% higher from a year earlier, while the average workweek was 34.4 hours. Revisions to July and August reduced payroll growth over those two months by a combined 60,000.

Weekly initial jobless claims were comparatively steady. Claims came in at 197,000 for the week ended September 26, down from a revised 198,000, while the four-week moving average was 200,000.

Inflation, however, remained firm. August Personal Income and Outlays showed personal income up 0.2% month on month, nominal PCE up 0.9%, real PCE up 0.6% and the saving rate at 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% on the month and 3.4% year on year. Core PCE increased 0.2% month on month and 3.0% year on year.

Other U.S. activity data were firmer. The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was revised to 2.2% annualised from 1.5%, while first-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.6%, and real gross domestic income increased 2.6%. August construction spending was $2,203.1 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 0.9% on the month but 1.7% below a year earlier. August manufacturers' new orders rose 0.1% to $663.5 billion.

The Treasury curve also moved unevenly. The 2-year yield fell from 4.92% on September 28 to 4.83% on October 2, a 9 basis-point decline. The 5-year finished unchanged at 5.06%. The 10-year rose 4 basis points to 5.28%, and the 30-year gained 7 basis points to 5.63%.

DXY finished the selected endpoint window higher, rising from 101.20 to 101.93, or 0.72%. The payroll release prompted a less hawkish shift in rate expectations, but no precise historical FedWatch percentage is used here. Market pricing is not Federal Reserve guidance.

Forex market reaction

The broader dollar gain was reflected most clearly in EUR/USD. The pair fell from 1.1371 on September 28 to 1.1254 on October 2, a decline of 1.03% on the selected Investing.com daily-price convention.

Euro-area inflation remained a separate policy input. September flash HICP rose 3.8% year on year and 0.6% month on month. Energy inflation reached 18.8% year on year, services inflation was 3.2%, food, alcohol and tobacco 1.4%, non-energy industrial goods 1.1%, and HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was 2.5%. Isabel Schnabel's September 30 speech focused on overlapping shocks, inflation persistence and the ECB's reaction function. The ECB's September 10 decision remained background rather than a new weekly action. That decision raised the three key rates by 25 basis points, effective September 16, leaving the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility rate at 2.90%.

GBP/USD was much less directional, slipping 0.09% from 1.3255 to 1.3243. UK second-quarter GDP was revised to 0.5% quarter on quarter, while the household saving ratio increased to 8.8%. Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor used a September 29 speech to discuss the risk that an energy shock could become persistent through inflation expectations and second-round effects. The Bank's September 17 decision to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote was prior-week policy background.

USD/JPY rose 0.30% from 157.38 to 157.86, but the yen story had its own domestic inputs. The Bank of Japan's September 18 decision had set the uncollateralised overnight call rate at around 1.25%, effective September 24. On October 1, the Tankan showed the large-manufacturer diffusion index at 24, up from 22 in June, while large non-manufacturers slipped to 35 from 37. The all-enterprises, all-industries reading was 21 versus 18 previously, and firms' FY2026 assumed USD/JPY rate was 154.23. The Summary of Opinions released the same day showed increased attention to upside price risks and differing views on whether underlying inflation had reached around 2%. Neither the Tankan nor the Summary of Opinions was a new policy decision.

Crypto market reaction

Crypto finished the full Monday-to-Sunday window higher across all three covered assets. Using CoinGecko historical daily observations dated in UTC, Bitcoin rose from $83,479 on September 28 to $86,490 on October 4, a 3.61% gain.

Ethereum moved from $2,687.92 to $2,725.91 over the same period, gaining 1.41%. Solana rose from $118.82 to $121.52, up 2.27%. These are provider-dated historical observations rather than exact Coinbase closing prices.

Price and fund flows diverged. Bitcoin's gain came alongside a positive weekly product-flow total, while Ether advanced despite a negative five-session flow result. Solana also gained even though its product-flow total was close to flat.

Regulatory and ecosystem news added context without offering a single explanation for the market move. On October 1, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed rules and amendments aimed at creating a tailored crypto-asset custody framework for registered investment advisers and regulated funds. The proposal included possible self-custody in certain circumstances and the use of state trust companies as custodians. It remains a proposal subject to a comment period, not a final rule or implementation.

The IMF also completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador's Extended Fund Facility on October 1, enabling about $138 million in immediate disbursement. The IMF said efforts to reduce state involvement in Bitcoin had continued; some performance criteria, including Bitcoin accumulation, were not met and waivers were granted. No further Bitcoin accumulation was envisaged beyond documented donations.

Solana had two network-specific developments. A September 28 network update said the 250 ms target slot time had been in place for only a small number of epochs as the network moved from 400 ms toward 200 ms; observed skip rates had remained stable. On September 30, Solana announced that OpenUSD/OUSD was live on the network, issued by Bridge, with Coinbase, Mastercard, Shopify, Stripe and Visa as founding partners. The announcement cited more than $1 billion in committed liquidity and more than 200 planned integrations. Those figures describe the project announcement; they do not independently establish adoption, liquidity quality, revenue impact or price impact.

Crypto ETF and product flows

Farside Investors showed a clear divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum products across the five U.S. trading sessions.

U.S. session	Bitcoin flow	Ethereum flow	Farside-tracked Solana-linked product flow
Sep 28	+$31.0m	+$17.1m	+$7.7m
Sep 29	+$66.2m	-$2.8m	+$5.4m
Sep 30	-$148.7m	-$59.6m	-$12.5m
Oct 1	+$102.7m	-$55.4m	-$1.1m
Oct 2	+$31.7m	-$17.3m	+$1.3m
Five-session total	+$82.9m	-$118.0m	+$0.8m

Bitcoin products therefore finished the week with a net inflow of $82.9 million despite the large September 30 outflow. Ethereum products recorded a $118.0 million net outflow, while Farside-tracked Solana-linked products ended with a small $0.8 million net inflow.

The flow split is useful context, but it should not be treated as a guaranteed directional signal. Price and flow direction can diverge over short periods, as Ethereum demonstrated this week.

Weekend crypto update

Crypto remained active after traditional markets closed. Under the same CoinGecko convention, Bitcoin moved from $84,743 on October 3 to $86,490 on October 4. Ethereum rose from $2,686.89 to $2,725.91, while Solana advanced from $119.60 to $121.52.

The main weekend development included in this recap came on Sunday. Bloomberg reported that OKXICE LLC, a joint venture between OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, had filed with the SEC for a proposed tokenised-stock platform covering an initial 63 NYSE-listed companies. The filing should not be treated as an approved or launched platform.

The OKXICE filing is treated as context for the weekend rather than as a direct explanation for crypto price moves.

Gold and silver

Gold and silver moved in opposite directions over the selected Monday-to-Friday spot-series endpoint window. Gold rose from $4,115.27 on September 28 to $4,142.96 on October 2, a 0.67% gain.

Silver fell from $60.9900 to $60.4167 over the same period, a decline of 0.94%. These are Investing.com spot-series endpoint returns, not CME or COMEX settlements and not futures returns.

Gold held a modest positive return even as the dollar strengthened, while silver finished lower. The split shows why the two metals should not be treated as one uniform weekly move. For the prior completed-window support and resistance framework, see HFR's September 28 BTC, ETH, gold and silver technical outlook.

What to watch next

The next scheduled macro and policy events are concentrated on October 6-8.

On October 6, the BEA is due to release August U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak on "Modernizing Regulation and Supervision". Eurostat is due to publish August euro-area retail trade, and Bank of England policymaker Catherine L. Mann is scheduled to appear at the TS Lombard Capital Markets Summit.

On October 7, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release minutes from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The Bank of Japan is also due to publish its Consumption Activity Index.

October 8 brings several policy and data events: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at the TCMB Istanbul Economic Forum; the U.S. Census Bureau is due to publish August Monthly Wholesale Trade; the ECB is scheduled to release the monetary-policy accounts for its September 9-10 meeting; Bank of England policymakers Megan Greene and Clare Lombardelli are scheduled to speak; and the Bank of Japan is due to release its October Regional Economic Report.

There is no major BLS release scheduled for October 5-9. The next listed major BLS release is September CPI on October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Weekly takeaway

The September 28-October 4 period left a more complicated picture than the payroll headline alone suggests. Hiring slowed sharply and rate expectations became less hawkish after the employment report, but inflation remained firm, second-quarter U.S. growth was revised higher and the Treasury curve split between lower short-end yields and higher long-end yields.

The dollar still finished higher, led by a notable decline in EUR/USD, while GBP/USD changed little and USD/JPY rose modestly. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all gained across the full crypto window, but product flows diverged sharply between Bitcoin and Ether. Gold added modestly while silver declined.

No single indicator explains the week cleanly. Labour data softened, inflation remained firm, the yield curve split, the dollar rose and crypto fund flows diverged. The next set of scheduled data and central-bank communication will show whether those cross-asset differences persist.

Risk note

Markets are volatile, and crypto, forex, commodities and leveraged products can move quickly around economic releases, central-bank communication, regulatory headlines and changes in liquidity. Leverage can amplify losses, and historical price performance or product-flow trends do not guarantee future results. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.

Sources and methodology

Traditional-market performance covers September 28-October 2, 2026. Crypto performance covers September 28-October 4, 2026. October 5 is used only as the editorial and source-check date; no October 5 market move is included in the completed-week figures. Facts and scheduled-event references were rechecked on October 5, 2026.

Official macro and policy sources used in this article include:

Market-price methodology uses Investing.com historical daily Price observations for DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD and XAG/USD. Gold and silver figures are spot-series endpoint returns. Crypto weekly performance uses CoinGecko historical daily observations dated in UTC. ETF and product-flow arithmetic uses Farside Investors consistently for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Farside-tracked Solana-linked products: