Weekly Market Recap: U.S. Data & Yields | Aug 10–16, 2026

Market Recap as of August 17, 2026

U.S. data released during August 10–14 pointed to slower inflation and weaker consumer spending. Headline and core CPI both eased on a year-over-year basis; July PPI was unchanged on the month and slower year over year, and retail sales fell 0.6% from June. The 2-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ended Friday below Monday's levels, while the dollar fell after Friday's retail-sales release.

Gold finished the selected Monday-to-Friday settlement window modestly higher, while silver was slightly lower using the same front-month COMEX convention. In crypto, Bitcoin weakened from around $65,000 on Monday to around $62,500 by Friday morning, while Ether traded below $1,900 during several weekday observations. Because the crypto references come from different observation times rather than matched closes, HFR does not calculate a weekly percentage return from them.

Traditional-market performance in this recap covers August 10–14. Crypto price context extends through Sunday, August 16, as stated. No August 17 market move, return or candle is included in the completed weekly period.

Week at a Glance

Market area	Weekly development
U.S. inflation	July CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y; core CPI rose 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. July PPI was flat m/m and up 4.7% y/y.
U.S. consumer	July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m; June was revised to +0.2%.
Treasury curve	2-year yield fell 8 bp, 5-year 5 bp, and 10-year 4 bp from Monday to Friday; the 30-year was unchanged.
Dollar/forex	The dollar weakened after Friday retail-sales data reduced expectations for another near-term rate increase; sterling remained relatively firm.
Crypto	Bitcoin weakened from around $65k on Monday to around $62.5k by Friday morning; Ether traded below $1.9k during several sessions. No matched weekly percentage is calculated.
Gold and silver	Front-month gold changed about +0.43% from Monday settlement to Friday settlement; silver changed about -0.18% on the same basis.

Market Context

The week's U.S. macro story was driven mainly by inflation, producer price, and consumer spending data rather than by a new Federal Reserve policy decision. The July 28–29 FOMC meeting had already concluded before this recap window, so the market focus shifted to how the new data affected rate expectations.

Market commentary during the week linked the softer inflation and retail data to lower expectations for another near-term U.S. rate increase. Treasury yields moved lower at the front and middle of the curve, the dollar weakened after Friday's retail-sales report, and gold ended the selected Monday-to-Friday settlement window slightly higher. Crypto prices were softer during several weekday observations. None of these moves establishes a guaranteed policy or market path.

Fed/U.S. Data/Treasury Yields/DXY

July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% on the month and 2.5% over the year, easing from 2.6% in June.

Producer-price data also eased on a year-over-year basis. July PPI was unchanged month over month and rose 4.7% year over year, compared with 5.5% in June.

Friday's retail-sales report added a weaker activity signal. July sales fell 0.6% from June, the largest monthly decline since May 2025, while June was revised to a 0.2% increase. Sales excluding gas stations and auto dealers fell 0.2%.

The U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates showed lower short- and intermediate-term yields over the week. The 2-year yield moved from 4.25% on Monday to 4.17% on Friday, a decline of 8 basis points. The 5-year fell 5 basis points to 4.36%, while the 10-year declined 4 basis points to 4.68%. The 30-year finished unchanged at 5.25% after falling to 5.21% on Thursday.

The lower 2-year, 5-year and 10-year yields were consistent with reduced expectations for near-term tightening after the softer data, but they should not be read as a commitment from the Fed. The next policy decision still depends on a wider set of inflation, activity and labour-market evidence.

DXY was observed around 99.675 early in the week and around 99.854 during Friday reporting, when it was down about 0.1% at that point in the session. Because these are intraday observations rather than matched closing prices, HFR does not calculate a Monday-to-Friday DXY percentage from them. A separate WSJ Dollar Index measure was down about 0.4% after Friday's retail-sales release, reinforcing the event-driven picture of dollar softness after the data.

Forex Market Reaction

The broad dollar story was not identical across every major pair. Sterling remained relatively firm and was described by The Wall Street Journal as August's strongest-performing major currency by Friday. The euro was slightly firmer in Friday reporting.

The yen was broadly steady in the same late-week coverage. Expectations that the Bank of Japan could consider another rate increase remained relevant to USD/JPY, but that was a pair-specific policy theme rather than a simple extension of the DXY move. No BoJ rate change occurred during the completed week.

The distinction matters because the dollar's response to U.S. inflation and retail data was broad macro context, while yen pricing also reflected expectations around Japanese monetary policy.

Crypto Market Reaction

Bitcoin weakened during the weekday period, moving from around $65,000 on Monday to around $62,500 by Friday morning in date-stamped market reporting. Ether also traded below $1,900 during several sessions, including around $1,895 on Thursday. These observations support a softer crypto tone, but they are not matched daily closes, so HFR does not calculate a precise weekly return from them.

Gold and Silver

Precious metals ended the selected Monday-to-Friday settlement window with a small divergence. Front-month gold settled at $4,361.80 on Monday and $4,380.40 on Friday, a change of about +0.43% between those two settlements. Its highest settlement in the retained series was $4,408.90 on Wednesday.

Front-month silver moved from $65.106 on Monday to $64.988 on Friday, a change of about -0.18% between those two settlements.

These figures use the same front-month COMEX contract convention and compare Monday's settlement with Friday's settlement. They are not Friday-to-Friday weekly returns. They are also separate from the OANDA spot-price convention used in HFR's technical analysis and should not be interpreted as spot support or resistance levels.

The softer U.S. data and lower short- and intermediate-term yields provided a more supportive backdrop for gold later in the week, while silver's Monday-to-Friday result remained slightly negative.

What to Watch Next

Tuesday, August 18 brings July U.S. import and export prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, July housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET, and July industrial production and capacity utilisation at 9:15 a.m. ET. Together, those releases will provide additional inflation and activity context.

On Wednesday, August 19 at 2:00 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its July 28–29 meeting. The minutes may add detail to the policy debate, but they should be read alongside the newer inflation and retail-sales data released since that meeting.

The remaining official calendar includes the Census Bureau's second-quarter Advance Services Report on August 20 at 10:00 a.m. ET and July State Employment and Unemployment data from the BLS on August 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

For newer dated market updates, see the HFR market analysis archive.

Week in Review

The completed week combined softer U.S. inflation and consumer-spending data with lower 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields, while the 30-year yield was unchanged from Monday to Friday. The dollar weakened after Friday's retail-sales report. Gold's selected Monday-to-Friday settlement change was about +0.43%, while silver changed about -0.18% on the same basis. Bitcoin also weakened through Friday morning and Ether traded below $1,900 during several sessions. These developments do not establish a single cross-asset trend, so the next U.S. releases and the July FOMC minutes remain the main near-term reference points.

Risk Note

Market news, prices and economic data are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be treated as financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset.

Crypto, forex and commodities can move rapidly around central-bank communication, economic releases, geopolitical developments, changes in market liquidity and shifts in investor positioning. Historical performance and past market reactions do not guarantee future results. Leverage can magnify losses and may lead to liquidation.

Sources and Methodology

HFR used official government and central-bank sources for release calendars and policy context, U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year yield series, and date-stamped financial-news reports for market reaction. DXY references are intraday observations rather than matched closes, so no Monday-to-Friday DXY percentage is calculated. Bitcoin and Ether price references also use date-stamped observations rather than a matched closing-price series, so no weekly crypto return is stated. Gold and silver use the same front-month COMEX contract convention from Monday, August 10 through Friday, August 14; those figures are Monday-to-Friday settlement changes, not Friday-to-Friday weekly returns.